Japan has ambitious renewable energy targets for 2030 and 2040, and with offshore wind gaining momentum, the sector has significant opportunities to continue scaling up. Both fixed and floating wind projects are set to play a key part in the country's offshore wind development, with its deeper waters particularly well suited to the latter.
Yet, like many countries, Japan must also overcome challenges related to infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and local partnerships. Here, we examine how those challenges remain pivotal for future developments.
Japan’s ambitious targets for 2040
Japan has committed to bold renewable energy goals as part of its 6th Strategic Energy Plan (2021), which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The target for offshore wind generation is set at 30–45 GW by 2040, driven by both fixed-bottom and floating wind technologies. Achieving this will necessitate rapid scaling and regulatory improvements, especially regarding project approvals and grid integration.
Offshore wind capacity and project pipeline
Japan’s offshore wind capacity remains modest, with less than 300 MW commissioned as of 2024, including the Akita and Noshiro ports project, Ishikari Bay New Port wind farm, and Nyuzen. However, the sector supports a pipeline of over 4 GW in the development and planning stages. Moreover, the results of Japan’s third auction round are expected to be announced by the end of the year, with around 2 GW of bottom-fixed projects to be awarded.
Floating wind is particularly crucial due to Japan's deep coastal waters. Along Japan's eastern coast, the Pacific Plate dives beneath the Okhotsk Plate, creating some of the world’s deepest oceanic trenches. Yet, as with other countries, floating wind remains in its infancy, with economic viability and technology readiness still under development, with less than 50 turbines commissioned worldwide. Demonstration projects have been launched in Japan, such as offshore the city of Fukushima in 2017, or are currently under construction, as in Goto, both in water depths greater than 100 meters.
Japan’s marine infrastructure supports offshore wind growth
Japan's maritime industry has a long-standing history, driven by the country’s geographical setting as an island nation. For decades, Japan has relied heavily on fishing and shipping, developing a sophisticated maritime infrastructure supporting extensive global trade and exporting electronics and automobiles. This dependency has also fostered a robust shipbuilding and marine construction sector.
With its maritime expertise, Japan is well-positioned to transition into offshore wind construction should industry leaders choose to diversify. Many companies possess the technical capacity and experience to support offshore wind projects. However, the sector remains relatively untapped as firms weigh the financial and operational risks of entry.
The availability of installation vessels is one key to successfully transitioning into offshore wind. Currently, six heavy-lift vessels are active in Japan, with two to be delivered in the coming years:
- Penta Ocean’s CP 5001 (500t crane, 2012-delivered)
- Penta Ocean’s CP 8001 (800t crane, 2019-delivered)
- Penta Ocean’s CP 16001 (1,600t crane, 2023-delivered)
- Shimizu’s Blue Wind (2,500t crane, 2022-delivered)
- Moricho’s Dai-Ichi-Yutaka (1,800t crane, 1987-delivered)
- Toyo Construction’s August Explorer (500t crane, 2016-delivered)
Still to enter the market:
- Obayashi’s Hakkaku (1,250t crane, Planned for 2024)
- Penta Ocean’s newbuild FIV (5,000-t crane, In Discussion)
Some other sheerleg cranes, such as Yorigami's Shinkenryu and Kaisho, can be used locally for foundation installation and can bolster the domestic fleet.
Using vessels from the international fleet is more complicated. Japan’s offshore wind targets rely on specialist vessels and skilled mariners, but strict cabotage laws limit foreign vessels' access, requiring either re-flagging or a special exemption. While some international operators have formed joint ventures with Japanese companies to meet these requirements, navigating Japan’s permitting process remains complex and may hinder foreign participation.
Technical and supply chain challenges still need to be addressed
Japan faces significant technical and logistical challenges in scaling its offshore wind sector. Earthquakes, typhoons, and the integration of large-scale wind farms into the national grid pose ongoing risks. Moreover, Japan’s offshore wind supply chain remains relatively underdeveloped compared to more mature offshore wind markets.
Offshore wind components manufacturing capacity is limited, and no major established offshore wind turbine producer exists within the country. However, the subsea cable sector is fairly well established, with major local players such as Sumitomo and Furukawa Electric and a European player, Nexans. JFE Engineering also manufactures foundations for offshore wind farms. Despite this, Japanese developers still depend on foreign expertise, mainly from Europe, to fully meet their goals.
Evolving frameworks needed to boost offshore wind
Japan’s regulatory framework for offshore wind, governed mainly by the Marine Renewable Energy Act, allows developers to secure permits for up to 30 years in designated zones within 12 nautical miles of the shore. While this act provides stability for nearshore projects, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is preparing legislation to establish more precise permitting processes within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
This upcoming framework will potentially unlock areas further offshore, particularly suited for large-scale floating and bottom-fixed projects, enhancing Japan’s long-term offshore wind growth. However, Japan is experiencing a period of political uncertainty, with no party holding a majority in the elections held at the end of October. This led to a plunge in the value of the yen and the election of a new prime minister in November.
Japan’s offshore wind industry is still young, and much depends on how regulatory frameworks evolve to balance developers' needs and incentivize investment. While suppliers are likely to commit only if the market proves viable, Japan’s maritime expertise and shipbuilding strengths offer a solid foundation for future growth.
Upcoming tender results later this year will be crucial for gauging industry interest and setting the stage for the sector’s expansion. They will signal Japan's readiness to establish itself as a competitive player in the global offshore wind market.
To learn more about how Spinergie’s Market Intelligence solution will help your research and planning, contact us today to hear more about our data-driven, granular offshore wind forecasting.
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