More than 100 GW worth of offshore wind projects were announced in 2021 with 44 GW earmarked to be completed before 2030. That's excluding the whopping 25 GW capacity awarded through the Scotwind lease round in January this year.
Unsurprisingly, though 2030 the UK will continue to lead the global market by a large margin. It is one of few (besides Taiwan and South Korea) with a total pipeline surpassing current 2030 targets. Denmark, Belgium and France are within sight of their targets, however, Germany, the Netherlands and the USA are behind by some margin.
To break it down further, Europe (including the UK) saw projects totalling 24 GW added before 2030 and 28 GW after 2030 (plus the 25 GW for Scotwind). In the Americas, here meaning USA and Brazil, 11 GW added before 2030 and 16 GW after 2030. Finally, Asia (excluding China) added 9 GW before 2030 and 18 GW after 2030.
Put together, this means that the global offshore wind capacity (excluding China) is on track to reach over 200 GW by 2030. Of this amount, 30 to 40% will come from outside of Europe, up from around 2% in February 2022.
Projects worth 200 GW have already been disclosed, 40% of which come from frontier regions. As of February 2022, 26.2 GW (98%) have been fully commissioned, all in Europe, including the UK. Taiwan makes up 25% of the capacity under construction. Meanwhile, construction is yet to begin on the USA’s first commercial wind farms. In all, 62 GW of capacity is yet to be announced if government targets are to be reached by 2030.
Floating wind seeing increased interest following landmark projects
The floating wind market has been enjoying an uptick of interest in recent months thanks to major project completion over the last two years. Namely, Kincardine (40 MW) and WindFloat Atlantic (25 MW) provide a much-needed proof of concept to investors and developers alike.
Other notable projects between now and 2025 include Hywind Tampen (88MW) and Golfe Du Lion (EFGL) (30MW) with a total of 0.38 GW on track for 2023. In 2025, the pace picks up even further with more notable projects including GIG Ulsan I (500 MW), Geomundo Dev (500 MW), Donghae I (200 MW) and Bythe Demo II (58.5 MW). Overall, 1.7 GW is on track for 2025.
Global floating wind capacity (excluding China) is expected to reach 40 GW by 2030, with 95% of total capacity coming online from 2025 onwards.
While the UK's pipeline again outshines its peers, it is interesting to note that some key markets will have most of their offshore wind capacity coming from floating technologies. This includes the southern European markets of Italy, Greece, and Spain - the latter two only having floating projects in the pipeline. Conversely, France, Japan and the USA remain predominantly focused on fixed offshore wind projects.
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