Offshore Wind Installation Forecast Report
Learn about the sector’s key trends, challenges, and opportunities, with a particular focus on vessel supply and demand dynamics. It is focused on the global bottom-fixed offshore wind installation market outside of China.
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Executive summary
109 GW to be installed by 2030, just two-thirds of the planned capacity
By 2030, from a 174 GW pipeline, 109 GW will likely be installed, potentially reaching 120 GW with a stronger vessel supply and leaving out 55 GW that will not find installation vessels under the current outlook.
By 2035, installed capacity is expected to hit 207 GW, or 68% of the announced bottom-fixed pipeline, reflecting a significant but challenging expansion in offshore wind farms.
Bigger turbines are coming, despite uncertainty
The 15 MW turbine segment is set to dominate the offshore wind market later this decade, as smaller turbines (11 MW and below) experience a generational fadeout.
The wind turbine industry faces pressures, with soaring costs and geopolitical uncertainty, with China's emerging role through its development of 16 to 22 MW turbines. Despite challenges, developers are driving a shift towards larger turbines.
Heavy-lift vessel demand is over-concentrated around 2030
By 2030, from a 174 GW pipeline, 109 GW will likely be installed, potentially reaching 120 GW with a stronger vessel supply and leaving out 55 GW that will not find installation vessels under the current outlook.
By 2035, installed capacity is expected to hit 207 GW, or 68% of the announced bottom-fixed pipeline, reflecting a significant but challenging expansion in offshore wind farms.
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